Effects of demography, disability weights and cervical cancer burden on HPV vaccination impact estimates of the PRIME model

Presenter: Kaja Abbas

Co-authors: Kevin van-Zandvoort, Mark Jit

Poster file: [download]
The PRIME (Papillomavirus Rapid Interface for Modelling and Economics) model has been used to assess the health impact and cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination in girls for prevention of cervical cancer caused by HPV types 16 and 18. Our aim is to compare the health impact estimates generated by the PRIME model after updates to the model inputs for demography, disability weights and cervical cancer burden. The vaccination scenario of 50% coverage for routine vaccination of 9-year old girls for the birth cohorts of 2011-2020 (vaccination years of 2020-2029) was compared to the counterfactual scenario of no vaccination in 177 countries. The base settings are based of demography using WHO life tables, disability weights of GBD 2001 study and cervical cancer burden estimates from GLOBOCAN 2012. The demography is updated to UNWPP (United Nations World Population Prospects) 2017 population estimates, disability weights from the GBD (Global Burden of Disease) 2017 study and GLOBOCAN 2018 (Global Cancer Incidence, Mortality and Prevalence from the International Agency for Research on Cancer). The updated estimates for vaccination impact are 16.63 cases averted, 12.45 deaths averted, and 266.06 DALYs averted per 1000 vaccinated girls. Since PRIME is based on a static cohort model, the health impact estimates of HPV vaccination per vaccinated girl will be uniform at different levels of vaccination coverage.