A meta‑regression analysis published in PLOS ONE consolidates published cost-effectiveness studies of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination across 195 countries, offering a comprehensive, standardized assessment of vaccine value at scale. Drawing on hundreds of incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) from 75 studies in the Tufts CEA registries, the researchers employed mixed‑effects regression models to predict country-level ICERs under a consistent framework. They found that the global mean ICER was US $4,217 per DALY averted (95% UI: $773–13,448), with more favorable estimates in many low- and middle-income countries—especially in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, where population-weighted mean ICERs fell below US $800 per DALY averted.
The analysis also used logistic regression to estimate the probability that HPV vaccination would be cost-saving in each country, revealing very low probabilities overall but identifying several countries (e.g. Congo, Eritrea, Central African Republic) with more promising economic returns. The study highlights key drivers of variation—such as vaccine cost, cervical cancer burden, and GDP per capita—and underscores that vaccine affordability and disease burden heavily influence economic value. These findings reinforce the importance of expanding HPV vaccination programs, particularly in Gavi-eligible and high-burden countries, and provide practical guidance for policymakers assessing vaccine investments under health sector constraints.
Thumbnail image credit: PLOS One
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