In 2016, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) finalized its guidelines for regulatory impact analysis. The guidelines discuss how to value mortality and morbidity risk reductions when assessing the impacts of HHS regulations and other policies. It relies on estimates of the value per statistical life (VSL) for expected changes in fatalities and the value per statistical case (VSC) for expected changes in non-fatal illnesses.
However, valuing risk reductions associated with regulations or other policies that address the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) presents significant challenges during the pandemic. Some of these challenges reflect uncertainties related to the impacts of the disease (e.g., characteristics of the possibly affected individuals, its symptoms, and duration). Other challenges relate to gaps and inconsistencies in the available valuation research.
This paper explores these issues. It summarizes the current data on the effects of COVID-19, describes the conceptual framework for valuation, investigates the public empirical research, and discusses the implications to value COVID-19 mortality and morbidity risk reductions based on the HHS guidelines for regulatory impact analysis.
