A new modelling study by researchers at Harvard, LSHTM, WHO, and IAVI describes the costs and cost-effectiveness of novel tuberculosis (TB) vaccines in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Previous studies have highlighted the economic impact of TB and the potential economic impact that novel TB vaccines could have on reducing this burden in specific LMICs. The cost and cost-effectiveness of novel TB vaccines, which depend on vaccine price and delivery strategy that may vary by country, are needed by vaccine developers, manufacturers, and potential purchasers to guide investment decisions.
In this study, the authors estimated the costs, cost-effectiveness, and incremental net monetary benefit of TB vaccine introduction from both the health system and societal perspective, in order to inform global-level decision-making for novel TB vaccine investment and introduction. Using mathematical and economic models, they assessed scenarios for the introduction of novel TB vaccines with a wide range of characteristics and a diverse set of health and economic outcomes, including country-specific introduction years from 2028 to 2047.
The analysis projected that an effective new TB vaccine could offer large potential health and economic benefits over 2028 to 2050. From a societal perspective, vaccination was projected to be cost-effective in 73 LMICs compared to a 1× per-capita gross domestic product (GDP) threshold. When considering the monetized value of health gains, introduction of an adolescent/adult TB vaccine could produce $283 to 474 billion in health and economic benefits by 2050, with greater benefits in LMICs with elevated TB incidence.
Introduction of a new TB vaccine was found to be impactful and cost-effective for a range of assumptions on vaccine price and delivery strategies, with aggregate health and economic benefits of similar scale to the most influential health interventions in LMIC settings in recent years. The results of these analyses can be used by global and country stakeholders to inform TB vaccine policy and introduction preparedness, as well as decision-making around future development, adoption, and implementation of novel TB vaccines.
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