A publication in BMC medicine from a consortium of researchers led by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine assesses the impacts of COVID-19 vaccination programme’s timing on health benefits, cost-effectiveness, and relative affordability in 27 African countries.
Researchers calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) compared to no vaccine use, and compared these ICERs to GDP per capita. Additionally, they calculated a relative affordability measure of vaccination programmes to assess potential nonmarginal budget impacts.
The findings showed that vaccination programmes with early start dates yielded the most health benefits and lowest ICERs compared to those with late starts. While producing the most health benefits, fast vaccine roll-out did not always result in the lowest ICERs. The highest marginal effectiveness within vaccination programmes was found among older adults. High country income groups, high proportions of populations over 60 years or non-susceptible at the start of vaccination programmes are associated with low ICERs relative to GDP per capita. Most vaccination programmes with small ICERs relative to GDP per capita were also relatively affordable.
Although ICERs increased significantly as vaccination programmes were delayed, programmes starting late in 2021 may still generate low ICERs and manageable affordability measures. Looking forward, lower vaccine purchasing costs and vaccines with improved efficacies can help increase the economic value of COVID-19 vaccination programmes.
