A new study published in BMC Medicine models the potential health and economic impacts of adolescent/adult vaccination with the novel TB vaccine M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination in India. Researchers from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health estimated reductions in tuberculosis cases and deaths from 2025-2050 using various scenarios for each vaccine compared to the no-new-vaccine baseline, as well as costs and cost-effectiveness from health-system and societal perspectives.
M72/AS01E scenarios were predicted to avert 40% more tuberculosis cases and deaths by 2050 compared to BCG-revaccination scenarios.
Cost-effectiveness ratios for M72/AS01E vaccines were around seven times higher than BCG-revaccination, but nearly all scenarios were cost-effective.
The estimated average incremental cost was US$190 million for M72/AS01E and US$23 million for BCG-revaccination per year.
Sources of uncertainty included whether M72/AS01E was efficacious in uninfected individuals at vaccination, and if BCG-revaccination could prevent disease.
The findings showed that M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination could be impactful and cost-effective in India, though there is great uncertainty in impact, especially given the unknowns surrounding the mechanism of effect and infection status required for vaccine efficacy.
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