A new study published in Vaccine models the impact of achieving Immunization Agenda 2030 targets through estimating the number of deaths that could be averted due to vaccination against 14 pathogens in 194 countries from 2021 to 2030. Researchers from WHO in collaboration with the University of Washington and Imperial College London used a future scenario defining years of vaccine introduction and scale-up needed to reach aspirational targets was developed as an input to estimate the long-term impact of vaccination.
The study estimated that 51.5 million deaths could be averted due to vaccinations administered between the years 2021 and 2030. With immunization coverage projected to increase over 2021–2030 an average of 5.2 million per year deaths will be averted annually, with 4.4 million deaths averted for the year 2021, gradually rising to 5.8 million deaths averted in 2030. The largest proportion of deaths is attributed to measles and hepatitis B accounting for 18.8 million and 14.0 million of total deaths averted respectively.
The results from this global analysis demonstrate the substantial potential mortality reductions achievable if the IA2030 targets are met by 2030. Deaths caused by vaccine preventable diseases disproportionately affect low- and middle-income countries in the African region.
You can read another recent publication on the projected product and immunization delivery costs for 194 countries from 2021–2030 for achieving IA2030 coverage targets for 14 pathogens here.
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