Impact of the 100 days mission for vaccines on COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study

This peer-reviewed modelling study, published in The Lancet Global Health, evaluates the potential public health and economic impact of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI)’s “100 Days Mission” during the COVID-19 pandemic. The study uses a previously published SARS-CoV-2 transmission model fitted to excess mortality data from 180 countries. The authors simulate counterfactual scenarios in which vaccines would have been developed and deployed within 100 days of pathogen identification, alongside scenarios incorporating expanded manufacturing capacity and strengthened health systems.

Key findings

• The 100 Days Mission alone could have averted an estimated 8.33 million deaths globally by the end of 2021 (95% CrI 7.70–8.68 million).
• With additional investments in manufacturing capacity and health systems, deaths averted increase to 11.01 million (95% CrI 10.60–11.49 million).
• The majority of deaths averted would have occurred in lower-middle-income countries.
• Estimated economic savings reach US$14.35 trillion (value of statistical life-years) under the 100 Days Mission alone, rising to over US$18 trillion with additional manufacturing and infrastructure investments.
• Earlier vaccine availability could also have reduced the duration of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including school closures, while still averting millions of deaths.

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