A new modeling study published in The Lancet Regional Health – Western Pacific sought to identify threshold prices for HPV vaccines which ensure that a government-funded HPV vaccination program would be cost-effective or cost-saving. The analysis modelled the health and economic impact of HPV vaccination over a 100-year time horizon from a healthcare payer perspective. Threshold analysis was conducted considering varying settings, cervical cancer screening, vaccine types, vaccine schedules, mode of vaccination, willingness-to-pay thresholds, and decision-making criteria.
The findings showed that using the current market price for HPV vaccines, national routine HPV vaccination is unlikely cost-effective. Under a two-dose schedule, the prices of the four available HPV vaccine types cannot exceed $26–$36 per dose depending on vaccine type to ensure the cost-effectiveness of the national program. Adopting vaccination at threshold prices would require an annual increase of 72%–97% of the total annual National Immunization Programme (NIP) budget in China. A cost-saving routine vaccination program requires vaccine prices of $5–$10 per dose (depending on vaccine type), producing a 21%–34% increase in the annual NIP budget.
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