Smart choices for optimal impact: policy decisions for a successful HPV vaccination program in Kenya

This conference poster presents modelling results examining how key policy decisions could influence the impact and costs of the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination program in Kenya. Developed by researchers from Health Systems Insight, the National Cancer Control Program and the National Vaccines and Immunization Program at the Kenya Ministry of Health, and Boston University School of Public Health, the analysis uses a static cohort model to estimate the health and economic implications of several policy scenarios. These scenarios include delays in switching to a one-dose schedule, adoption of the nonavalent HPV vaccine (9vHPV), vaccine supply disruptions, earlier transition from Gavi support, and different vaccination coverage scale-up strategies. The model estimates cervical cancer cases, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and program and treatment costs from a health system perspective.

Key findings

• Rapidly switching to a one-dose HPV vaccination strategy and scaling up coverage could avert an additional 249,700 DALYs compared with the current two-dose program with ~50% coverage.
• Under this scenario, program costs would decrease (US$76 million vs. US$81 million) while treatment costs would also fall (US$2.07 billion vs. US$2.09 billion).
• Earlier-than-planned transition from Gavi support could increase total program costs by approximately US$39 million compared with a transition occurring in 2029.
• Switching to a one-dose 9vHPV strategy could avert 26,000 additional cervical cancer cases (14%) compared with a one-dose bivalent HPV (2vHPV) strategy.
• Although adopting 9vHPV would increase vaccination costs by US$38 million, these additional costs would be offset by US$40 million in treatment cost savings. 

Thumbnail image credit: Gavi