A new study explores the relationship between immunization budgets and vaccine coverage across 9 antigens in 19 low- and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs).
Hao-Kai Tseng from the Taiwan Centers for Disease Control analyzed data from UNICEF’s newly released Global Immunization Budget Database (GIBD) for 2021-2024. Using Bayesian INLA method, a one percentage point increase in the immunization budget was associated with a 0.42% increase in DTP1 coverage growth rate (posterior mean) when controlling the years. Other antigens, including DTP3, BCG, MCV1, POL3, IPV1, and PCV3, also showed positive but non-significant trends.
Tseng highlights that UNICEF’s GIBD is a breakthrough in immunization economics, leveraging AI to extract and categorize scattered line items from national budget documents. Unlike expenditure data, which are often delayed, GIBD provides an early outlooks into governmental priorities.
This study also predicts DTP1 coverage in 2025 for Kenya, Madagascar, Mali, Togo, and Zambia. The results were presented at the Taiwan Public Health Joint Annual Conference on 19 October 2025.
How can the findings be used?
The primary audience of this paper includes national immunization programmes, NITAGs, and Ministries of Health and Finance in LMICs. The findings offer timely evidence to enhance immunization strategy planning and facilitate the mobilization of domestic resources required to sustain DTP coverage.
It also provides insights for global health initiatives such as WHO, UNICEF, and Gavi, supporting M&E efforts, improving the tracking of government financial commitments, strengthening strategic financing, and refining operational forecasts.
For the academic community, this research demonstrates the usage of GIBD for modelling. Future research pathways include exploring discrepancies between budgets and expenditures, analyzing the integration of governmental and international aid streams, linking finance data to progress on reaching zero-dose children, and incorporating other health financing indicators.
Discussion and collaboration are strongly encouraged; the R script is publicly available on the GitHub repository – haokaitseng/unicef_gibd.
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