A new modelling study in Vaccine evaluates what introducing routine infant rotavirus vaccination could mean for Egypt, comparing three WHO-prequalified products—ROTARIX®, ROTASIIL®, and ROTAVAC®—against a “no vaccination” scenario over a 10-year period. Researchers frame the analysis around Egypt’s current policy context: rotavirus vaccines are widely used globally, yet Egypt has not introduced them, in part because of affordability constraints and a strategic emphasis on domestic vaccine production. Using a static cohort model with fine age stratification, they estimate how vaccination could reduce rotavirus gastroenteritis (RVGE) cases, outpatient visits, hospitalizations, deaths, and associated health system costs.
The results suggest substantial potential public health gains: over a decade, rotavirus vaccination could prevent more than 11 million RVGE cases, over 7 million clinic visits, more than 700,000 hospital admissions, and over 1,400 deaths among children under five. Program costs varied by product in the base case (roughly US$306M for ROTASIIL, US$313M for ROTAVAC, and US$400M for ROTARIX), and the study estimates that vaccination could avert more than 64% of RVGE healthcare costs. While ROTASIIL was projected to have more favorable cost and health outcomes in the base case than the other options, the authors emphasize that cost-effectiveness is highly sensitive to the per-dose vaccine price and the assumed health system delivery cost per dose—highlighting procurement price negotiations and realistic delivery-costing as pivotal levers for decision-making.
Thumbnail image credit: Gavi/2023/Prakhar Deep Jain
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