A new modelling study projects the profound global impact of next-generation influenza vaccines (NGIVs), encompassing improved, broadened, or universal immunization products. The authors used age-structured transmission models in 186 countries over 30 years, calibrated with WHO FluNet data, to estimate infections averted. Results suggest that vaccinating 50% of children under 18 annually could prevent 1.3 billion infections with current vaccines, 2.6 billion with improved ones, and 3 billion with universal vaccines. The framework also identifies price thresholds for cost-effectiveness, noting that while NGIVs may be cost-effective in many countries even at higher prices, tiered pricing will be essential for affordability in low- and middle-income countries.
The study highlights that NGIVs not only promise substantial reductions in influenza burden but could also offer strong economic returns—especially in high-income contexts. Yet, the authors caution that to achieve global access and impact, policymakers, manufacturers, and funders must adopt tiered pricing strategies and support delivery systems in lower-income settings. The modelling framework provides valuable guidance on where and how NGIVs could yield the greatest benefits, informing strategic investment decisions as vaccine candidates advance through clinical development.
Thumbnail image credit: Authors’ documentation
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