A study in The Lancet presents the most comprehensive global analysis to date of routine childhood vaccination coverage trends from 1980 through 2023, with modeled forecasts up to 2030. Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2023, the assessment reveals that despite early rapid gains, global immunization coverage has plateaued over the past decade—with millions of children at risk of vaccine-preventable diseases. While some regions achieved sustained increases, many others— both in high- and lower-income settings—have stagnated or declined, posing a serious threat to progress toward health equity and the Sustainable Development Goals.
The study underscores the urgent need for renewed investment and strategic innovation to reverse these trends. Forecast scenarios indicate that without targeted interventions, many countries will miss childhood immunization targets by 2030. For immunization economists and policymakers, these findings emphasize the importance of reinforcing supply chains, improving demand-generation strategies, and prioritizing funding for hard-to-reach populations. The evidence base provided offers valuable planning guidance to strengthen routine immunization programs globally and to accelerate momentum in countries facing persistent stagnation. The diversity of challenges and barriers leading to the failure to immunize varies broadly from country to country and community to community. Advancing equitable childhood vaccination will require both collective global engagement and the input of local stakeholders to shape vaccination strategies responsive to context-specific realities, and these efforts must be supported by strong evidence and data, including robust, timely, and local estimates of coverage such as those provided in this study.
Thumbnail image credit: Gavi
Any organization or individual working in the field of immunization economics can submit findings, opportunities, calls to action, or other relevant work below to be shared with our community.