A new geospatial study in the International Journal of Epidemiology maps where COVID-19 vaccine uptake has lagged in Kenya and why—using Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (KDHS) 2022 data on the share of eligible people vaccinated. The authors combine spatial statistics, clustering, machine learning, and a composite Development Index alongside equity auditing (Erreygers Concentration Index) to identify seven geographically concentrated vulnerability clusters and translate complex structural drivers into actionable program signals for targeting.
The analysis finds stark geographic gaps, with vaccination rates ranging from 5.93% (Garissa) to 46.02% (Nyeri), and consistently higher uptake in urban clusters. Key predictors include financial inclusion (bank access), household crowding, and environmental factors (e.g., nitrogen dioxide levels and precipitation), while equity results suggest more pronounced wealth-related inequality than inequality linked to routine child immunization coverage. The paper argues that as Kenya (and other LMICs) shift from campaigns to routine delivery, tools like vulnerability-cluster mapping and equity metrics can help prioritize underserved areas—supporting options such as mobile vaccination units, financial inclusion interventions (e.g., M-Pesa subsidies), and integration of COVID-19 vaccination into routine immunization with ongoing equity monitoring.
Thumbnail image credit: Shutterstock / Matyas Rehak
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