Determining context-specific economically feasible age ranges for female HPV catch-up vaccination in LMICs: a model-based health economic assessment

This preprint paper presents a model-based health economic assessment of HPV catch-up vaccination strategies for females in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), using IARC’s METHIS modelling platform across 132 countries. The study simulates extending catch-up vaccination up to age 30 and evaluates health impact, budget impact, and cost-effectiveness using transmission and disease progression models. 

Key findings 

• Catch-up HPV vaccination up to age 30 could prevent approximately 9.2 million cervical cancer cases across 132 LMICs over the lifetime of vaccinated cohorts.
• Budget impact varied widely across countries, ranging from 0.007% to 2.24% of five-year health expenditure and up to 236.65% of immunization budgets.
• Vaccine procurement accounted for around 70% of total programme costs.
• Gavi support could reduce country costs by approximately 70% for catch-up vaccination up to age 18.
• Catch-up vaccination was cost-effective in almost all evaluated countries up to age 30, with diminishing marginal returns as the upper age increases.
• Health impact is greatest in younger cohorts, with effectiveness declining at older ages due to prior HPV exposure.

Thumbnail image credit: Gavi