Cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus vaccination in Jordan: A modelling study

This peer-reviewed article presents a modelling study of the potential health impact, budget impact, and cost-effectiveness of introducing single-dose HPV vaccination for 12-year-old girls in Jordan from 2026 to 2035. The analysis compares three HPV vaccine products—Cecolin®, Cervarix™, and Gardasil®—against a scenario with no HPV vaccination and no change in existing cervical cancer screening services, estimating lifetime costs and outcomes from a government perspective using 2023 USD.

Key findings

• A decade of HPV vaccination in Jordan could prevent at least 2,200 cervical cancer cases and 1,200 deaths over the lifetimes of vaccinated girls, reducing expected cervical cancer cases and deaths by more than 50%.
• Cecolin® was estimated to cost US$9.2 million to introduce, but could generate about US$14.6 million in treatment cost savings, making it cost-saving in 97% of probabilistic runs.
• Cervarix™ was estimated to cost US$16.2 million and to generate greater health impact than Cecolin®, depending on assumptions about cross-protection.
• Compared with Cecolin®, Cervarix™ cost US$2,025 per additional DALY averted and had a 100% probability of being cost-effective at a threshold of 0.7 times national GDP per capita.
• Gardasil® was dominated because it generated equivalent or lower health benefits than the other products at higher cost.

Thumbnail image credit: Gavi