Public Health and Economic Impact of transitioning to a 20-valent pneumococcal vaccine in Kazakhstan’s Pediatric National Immunization Program

This preprint research article evaluates the health and economic impact of transitioning to a 20-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV20) within Kazakhstan’s pediatric national immunization program. Using a decision-analytic Markov model (payer perspective) over a 10-year horizon, the study compares PCV20 (2+1 and 3+1 schedules) with currently available vaccines (PCV13 and PCV10-SII). 

Key findings

• PCV20 (both 2+1 and 3+1 schedules) was cost-saving and more effective (dominant) compared to PCV13 and PCV10-SII
• Switching from PCV13 to PCV20 (2+1) could avert over 196,000 disease cases and 5,127 deaths over 10 years
• PCV20 introduction was associated with substantial cost savings (e.g., ~108,701 million ₸ savings vs PCV13 for 2+1 schedule)
• Results were robust across sensitivity and scenario analyses, with PCV20 remaining cost-saving in most simulations
• Delaying PCV20 introduction by 2 years would lead to additional cases, deaths, and healthcare costs, with increasing losses over time
• Early implementation generates greater benefits due to both direct and indirect effects, which increase over time

Thumbnail image credit: Photo by Ilyas Dautov on Unsplash